samedi 24 octobre 2015

Corbion (Pays-Bas, AMX)

J'ai décidé de parcourir les 25 sociétés de l'indice AMX (les 25 sociétés les plus importantes aux Pays-Bas, après les 25 plus importantes de l'indice AEX), en analysant en surface chacune d'elles et en présentant mes conclusions dans un article court qui serira plus d'aide-mémoire que d'analyse complète sous forme d'oeuvre littéraire.

Cette analyse porte sur Corbion.

Date: 24/10/2015
Cours actuel: 22.13 EUR
Nb d'ctions: 62 391 505
Market cap: 1380m
Dette nette: 72.1m
EV:1452m

Business


Extraits du rapport annuel 2014:

Corbion is the global market leader in lactic acid, lactic acid derivatives and lactides, and a leading
company in functional blends containing enzymes, emulsifiers, minerals and vitamins.

At Corbion we distinguish between two lines of business, each with a different set of characteristics:
Biobased Ingredients and Biobased Innovations.


  • The Biobased Ingredients business unit focuses on our core business: ingredients for food and biochemicals. Corbion’s Biobased Ingredients business (ingredients for food and biochemicals) is the core of our company. Our ingredients business is characterized by modest growth, solid margins, predictable cash flows, and modest investment requirements. 20m savings costs by 2016;
  • Our Biobased Innovations business unit creates new business platforms to help advance biotechnology developments. Our Biobased Innovations business builds new business platforms in biotechnology, powered by the megatrends, using our capabilities in fermentation and downstream processing. We have a portfolio with large growth opportunities, a difficult to predict cash flow timing, and a relative high investment requirement.


Capital allocation

Recurring dividend.
Corbion plans to raise its regular dividend to 35-45% (was 35%) of net profit adjusted for one-off items.

Financial targets 2015-2018:
Biobased Ingredients: net sales growth CAGR of 2-4% (1-3% in Food, 5-8% in Biochemicals),
EBITDA margin >18% in 2018, while maintaining ROCE >15% throughout the period. Recurring
capital expenditure is expected to average € 35 million per annum.

Biobased Innovations: negative impact on EBITDA not to materially increase from current levels
(- € 14 million in 2013). Business plans at maturity are required to deliver EBITDA margin of
>18% and ROCE of >15%. Recurring capital expenditure, including capitalized R&D expenses,
excluding large commercial-scale plant investments, is expected to average € 20 million per
annum.

Corbion continues to target a net debt/EBITDA ratio of 1.5x, over the investment cycle.

Dette nette inférieure à une année d'EBITDA, structure conservatrice (en 2014, 0 de dette nette).

Finance and valorisation

One-off costs tous les ans... (2014: 14.8m; 2013: 19.9m)
EBITDA (including one off costs):95m

EV/EBITDA: 15.3

D/A:44m
Comme le management indique 20m pour les innovations, on peut supposer un mCAPEX d'environ 20m, donc EV/(EBITDA-mCAPEX) = 20 soit un rendement de 5%

En prenant en compte les 20m d'économies pour 2016, on aurait un EV/(EBITDA-mcapex) = 15.3, soit un rendement de 6.5%


Conclusion

6.5% de rendement pour une faible croissance attendue (confirmée durant le Q2 2015) indique que Corbion est à mon avis sur-valorisée.

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